1.0 Introduction
The population and agricultural sector of a country is crucial to the overall well-being of a
nation’s economy. On one hand, the population encompasses the workforce of various sectors
(agricultural, industrial, and services) and the productivity of the workforce determines its
contribution to the overall economy. On the other hand, the agricultural sector can be referred
to as the food bank of the economy. In other words, the sector is in charge of providing
enough food with the available physical and financial resources to feed its populace.
Furthermore, the agricultural sector should be able to managed and sustain food availability
and tackle food related issues that may rise. According to the World Bank (2018), the
development of the agricultural sector must be at the forefront of any country’s
developmental agenda to achieve a healthy, sustainable and inclusive food systems. Thus, a
robust agricultural sector cannot be underestimated because:

“Agricultural development is one of the most powerful tools to end extreme
poverty, boost shared prosperity, and feed a projected 9.7 billion people by 2050.
Growth in the agriculture sector is two to four times more effective in raising
incomes among the poorest compared to other sectors (The World Bank, 2018).”

However, a rising population implies more mouth to feed and according to Kwatiah (2016),
Malthus argued that population growth outpaces food production and, if unchecked, leads to
vice or suffering. Furthermore, the Malthusian postulate is argued to be true in developing as
compared to developed. Yet, Kwatiah (2016) argued that the true goal of population policy is
not to prevent starvation but to eradicate poverty in order to quickly increase production per
head.

Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and the seventh most populated nation in the
world. Its population grows by over 5.5 million people annually (WorldAtlas, 2021). By 2050, Nigeria is expected to have a population of 392 million, up from more than 186 million
in 2016, making it the fourth most populated nation on earth (cia, 2022). This figure provides
an indication that the Nigerian population is among the fastest-growing populations in the
world, on the other hand, food production increases marginally, at a rate lower than the
population growth rate. Despite the fact that the rural communities have agriculture as their
mainstay, Aina et al. (2019) reported that 50% of hungry people are farm families in
rural communities. It is argued that while poverty is the principal cause of hunger, hunger
also causes poverty by bringing about poor health and low levels of energy, thereby
impeding productivity and resulting in poverty (Aina, Falola, Amoussou, Oni, & Aribisala,
2019).

Agricultural production in Nigeria has still not met the population demand, leading to food
insecurity, malnutrition, and a rise in poverty, especially in the rural areas (Aina et al.,
2019). Effective and innovative agricultural production line is a good prospect towards
sustainable development in the country. The importance of agriculture in Nigeria cannot
be overemphasized because it serves as the main source of livelihood in the country,
especially amongst the poor populace. However, two important trends are worth analyzing.
First, cia.(2022) argue that Nigeria's high birth rate and population momentum will ensure
that a continued high population growth rate lasts for the foreseeable future. Second, the
World Bank (2018) argue that food security, poverty alleviation, and growth generated by
agriculture are all at risk because recent shocks ranging from COVID-19-related disruptions
to harsh weather, pests, and wars are affecting food systems, driving rising food prices and
escalating famine. Thus, the relationship between the population growth and development of
the agricultural sector is uncertainty. This uncertainty prompted the following questions:
What is the effect of the rising population on the development agricultural sector in Nigeria?

Does population growth have a short and long run relationship with the development of the
agricultural sector in Nigeria? And these questions spawned the aim of this study. Thus, the
main objective of this study is to examined the relationship between population growth and
the development of the agricultural sector in Nigeria using annual data from 1985 to 2021.
specifically, the study seeks to: investigate the effect of population growth on the
development of the agricultural sector; and investigate the existence of a long run relationship
between population growth and the development agricultural sector.