CHAPTER ONE

1.1 BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

The avoidance of rapid increase in general price level which is inflation is

one of the micro economic objectives of any economy. When the price level

rises each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services. Consequently

inflation also refers to erosion in the purchasing power of money a loss of real

value in the internal medium of exchange and unit of account in the economy. A

chief measure of price inflation is the price inflation rate the annualized

percentage change in a general price index (normally the consumer price index)

over time.

Solow (1979) for instance sees inflation as going on when one needs

more and more money to buy some representatives bundle of goods and

services or sustained fall in the purchasing power of money a sustained rise in

price level(Johnson1972).A persistence and appreciable rise in the general level

of prices(Shapiro1994)and a continuing rise in prices as measured by an index

such as the consumer price index (CPI) (Dernbury and Mc Dongall).

Robert J. Gordon (1986) describes three major types of inflation as the

“triangle model” and these includes demand pull inflation cost-push inflation

and built-in inflation.

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The demand pull inflation occurs when aggregate demand for goods and

services is greater than the aggregate supply such that the resultant excess

demand cannot be satisfied by running down on existing stocks diverting

supplies from the export market to the domestic market increasing imports.

The cost-push also known as supply shock inflation caused by drops in

aggregate supply due to increased prices of inputs for example take for instance

a sudden increase in the supply of oil which would increase oil prices

producers for whom oil is a part of their cost could then pass is on to consumer

in the form of increase prices.

Built-in inflation is induced by adaptive expectations and involves

workers trying to keep their wages up with prices and firms passing their higher

labour cost unto their customer as higher prices leading to a “vicious circle” The

presence of inflation in a country leads to a fall in the function of money as a

medium of exchange and a store of value.

The beginning of inflation in Nigeria can be said to be a direct result of

policies of the country’s Governments to stimulate a fast rate of economic

growth and development since 1951 when ministerial Government was

introduced. Inflationary trend since independence shows the rate of inflation as

been 11.4 percent in 19807.7 percent in 198223.2 percent in 198340 percent

in 1984 and 40.9 in 1989. (Anyanwu 1995). Inflation has continued recently to

be a leading topic in Nigeria’s families and press as its effects penetrate more

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deeply into the nation’s life. It has become something of a platitude to say that

sharp continuous increases in prices are among the most serious economic

problem of our time.

Inflation can also be in form of galloping inflation which is a situation

where by inflationary rate becomes immensurable and uncontrollable. The

central bank of Nigeria (CBN) being part of the macroeconomic management

agency indulges in finding out the determinants of inflation in the economy and

set up the required macroeconomics policies that will help to reduce the

inflationary rate in the economy.

1.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

Inflation has a negative Impact in the economy as a whole. It is backed up with

an increment with the wages and salaries of workers and also leads to fall in

standards of living and economic development of the nation.

High or unpredictable inflation rate are regarded as being harmful to the

overall economy. They add deficiencies in the market and make it difficult for

companies to budget or plan long term. Uncertainty about the future purchasing

power of money discourages investment and savings.

In Nigeria some of the macro economic variables determining inflation

are said to be real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) exchange rate government

expenditure and money supply. Therefore the study is intended to look into the

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possible determinants of inflation and recommend solutions to the inflationary

trends in the Nigerian economy.

1.3 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

The study has the following objectives:

1. To identify and analyses the possible determinants of inflation rate in the

country.

2. To identify variables which have significant impact on inflation in

Nigeria?

3. To suggest possible course of action to remedy the problem.

1.4 RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS

This hypothesis is formulated to acquire necessary information and basis

assumption of the study. Hypotheses are formulated in two forms namely:

Null hypothesis (H0)

Alternative hypothesis (Hl)

Null Hypothesis

A null hypothesis is a hypothesis which states a no difference or no relationship

exists between two or more variables. In fact it is a hypothesis stated in the

negative direction.

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Alternative Hypothesis

This is a hypothesis which specifies any of the possible conditions not

anticipated in the null hypothesis. It specifies the conditions which we hold if

the null hypothesis does not hold. Infact it is the hypothesis stated in the

positive direction.

HO: There is a no significant relationship between inflation rate and money

supply exchange rate gross domestic product and government expenditure

leading to a negative impact on inflation in Nigeria

HO:Ko=O

HI: There is significant relationship between inflation rate and money supply

exchange rate gross domestic product and government expenditure leading to a

positive impact on inflation in Nigeria.

HI:Kl=O

1.5 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY

This study apart from the set objectives will be important in the following ways:

1. It will help policy makers in their zeal to establish policy measures for

handling the issue of inflation in Nigeria.

2. It will serve as a guide line for future research work on this particular

issue.

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3. It will assist policy makers to appreciate variables that impact on Nigeria

inflation with a view to manage such variables appropriately and

effective.

1.6 SCOPE AND LIMITATION OF THE STUDY

This study covers a period of 30 years that is from 1980-

2010.Howeverthis work like another works especially in the social sciences

has its own limitation .In the first instance this study will be constrained by the

amount of relevant research materials and data that are available to the

researcher at the time of conducting this study .More so paucity of official data

their reliability when ever available as well as the inconsistencies in the data

published by different sources on the same topic all pose a challenge in the

conduct of this study.

Therefore in spite of these constraints attempt shall be made to ensure

that these draw-backs do not in anyway significantly affect the findings of this

study.

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