CHAPTER ONE

1.0 INTRODUCTION

1.1 BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

the exchange rate is perhaps one of the most widely discussed topic

in Nigeria today. This is not surprising given it’s macro-economic

importance especially in a highly import dependent economy as

Nigeria (Olisadebe 1995:20). Macroeconomic policy formulation is a

process by which the agencies responsible for the conduct of

economic policies manipulate a set of instrumental variables in order

to achieve some desire objectives.

In Nigeria these objectives include achievements of domestic price

stability balance of payment equilibrium efficiency equitable

distribution of income and economic growth and development.

Economic growth refers to the continuous increase in a country’s

national income or the total volume of goods and services a good

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indicator of economic growth is the increase in Gross National

Product (GNP) over a long period of time. Economic development on

the overhead implies both structural and functional transformation of

all the economic indexes from a low to a high state (Siyan 2000:150)

one of the macro –economic variables of importance is the exchange

rate policy country.

Exchange rate policy involves choosing where foreign transaction will

take place (Obadan 1996). Exchange rate policy is therefore a

component of macroeconomic management policies the monetary

authorities in any given economy uses to achieve internal balance in

medium run. Specifically internal balance mean the level of economic

activity that is consistent with the satisfactory control of inflation. On

the contrary external or sustainable current account deficit financed

on lasting basis expected capital inflow.

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It is important to know that economic objectives are usually the main

consideration in determining the exchange control. For instance from

1982 – 1983 the Nigerian currency was pegged to the British pound

sterling on a 1.1 ration. Before then the Nigerian naira has been

devalued by 10%. Apart from this policy measures discussed above

the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) applied the basket of currencies

approach from 1979 as the guide in determining the exchange rate

was determined by the relative strength of the currencies of the

country’s trading partner and the volume of trade with such

countries. Specifically weights were attached to these countries with

the American dollars and British pound sterling on the exchange rate

mechanism (CBN 1994). One of the objectives of the various macro

– economic policies adopted under the structural adjustment

programme (SPA) in July 1986 was to establish a realistic and

sustainable exchange rate for the naira this policy was

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recommended in 1986 by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). On

exchange mechanism and was adopted in 1986.

The key element of structural adjustment programme (SAP) was the

free market determination of the naira exchange rate through an

auction system.

This was the beginning of the unstable exchange rate; the

government had to establish the foreign exchange market (FEM) to

stabilize the exchange rate depending on the state of balance of

payments the rate of inflation Domestic liquidity and employment.

Between 1986 and 2003 the federal Government experimented with

different exchange rate policies without allowing any of them to

make a remarkable impact in the economy before it was changed.

This inconsistency in policies and lack of continuity in exchange rate

policies aggregated unstable nature of the naira rate. (Gbosi

1994:70).

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1.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

The exchange rate of the naira was relatively stable between 1973

and 1979 during the oil boom er (regulatory require). This was also

the situation prior to 1990 when agricultural products accounted for

more than 70% of the nation’s gross domestic products (GDP) (Ewa

2011:78).

However as a result of the development in the petroleum oil sector

in 1970’s the share of agriculture in total exports declined

significantly while that of oil increased. However from 1981 the

world oil market started to deteriorate and with it’s economic crises

emerged in Nigeria because of the country’s dependence on oil sales

for her export earnings. To underline the importance of oil export to

Nigerian economy the gross national product (GNP) fell from $76

billion in 1980 to $40 billion in 1996 a number of economic growth

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became negative as result of the adoption of structural adjustment

programme (SAP).

This major problem which this study is designed to solve is whether

the exchange rate has any bearing on Nigerians economic growth an

d development. While some Economist dispute the ability of change

in the real exchange rate to improve the trade balance of developing

countries (Hinkle 1999:21) because of elasticity of their low export

others believe that structural policies could however change the long-

term trends in the terms of trade and the prospects for export led

growth. Instabilities of the foreign exchange rate is also a problem to

the economy.

1.3 OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY

the objective of the study is to show the impact of exchange rate on

gross domestic product and hence how this effect the growth and

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development of the Nigerian economy identifying the impacts of the

unstable exchange rate of the naira on these major macro-economic

variables would however depend on the conditions prevailing in the

economy at a given time.

The main objectives of exchange rate policy in Nigeria are:

(1) To present the value of the domestic currency.

(2) To maintain favourable external reserve position.

(3) To ensure price stability and price stability and price levels

which are consistent with those of our trading partners.

(4) To have a realistic exchange rate which will remove the existing

distortions and distortions and disequilibrium in the external

sector of the economy.

(5) To have a stable and realistic exchange rate that is in

consonance with other macro-economic fundamentals.

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1.4 FORMULATION OF THE RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS

Based on the objectives of the study the following hypothesis were

formulated.

Ho: Exchange rate fluctuation has no significant impact on Nigeria

economic growth and development.

Hi: Exchange rate fluctuation has a significant impact on Nigerians

economic growth and development.

1.5 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY.

The significance of this research work lies in the fact that if the cause

of the unstable exchange rate of the naira is identified and corrected

the economy will rapidly grow and develop into an advance one. This

is so because if the unstable exchange rate of naira is proved to be

affecting the macro- economy major variables badly including Real

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exchange rate Real interest rate inflation rate gross domestic

product and trade openess of the country attempts should be made

to stabilize the exchange rate. This is because these variables are

gauge for the measurement of growth and development of any

economy. Importantly this study would help the government and the

central bank of Nigeria (CBN) to identify the strength and weakness

of each foreign exchange system and hence adopt the policy that

suits the economy best. This will definitely enhance growth and

development of the economy the study will also serve as a guide to

future researchers on this subject.

1.6 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

The study is structured to evaluate the Nigeria exchange rate as the

pilot of economy growth and development. The study is therefore

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limited to the core economic growth in Nigeria and not the socio-

political factors of the foreign exchange rate.

1.7 THE SCOPE OF THE STUDY

This research work is designed to cover the period 1980-2009 a

period of thirty years. The scope consist of the regulatory and

deregulatory exchange rate period i.e. the fixed exchange rate and

the floating exchange rate period. The study is based on core macro-

economic performance of Nigeria between 1980-2010 more so it

rests can core economic growth and development in Nigeria for the

period of thirty-one years.

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